Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 21.179378 22.306754 23.489231 24.826736 26.303442 27.890829 29.735397
2025-12-28 19.834070 21.459255 23.248412 25.382904 27.885608 30.760325 34.362660
2026-01-04 18.853168 20.745750 22.894829 25.551045 28.797732 32.710489 37.904997
2026-01-11 18.184769 20.286559 22.734717 25.852304 29.803387 34.775994 41.747445
2026-01-18 17.512259 19.748945 22.407658 25.876833 30.408761 36.330078 45.049343
2026-01-25 16.770577 19.069290 21.844720 25.535863 30.475975 37.132181 47.351739
2026-02-01 16.104946 18.439817 21.296358 25.157975 30.436685 37.747093 49.411552
2026-02-08 15.465834 17.808541 20.705892 24.676227 30.201208 38.035538 50.969102
2026-02-15 15.046062 17.431380 20.416338 24.568174 30.461666 39.045786 53.792823
2026-02-22 14.847796 17.323526 20.464260 24.910126 31.372887 41.100607 58.677757
2026-03-01 14.424533 16.905879 20.081543 24.628505 31.342921 41.676015 61.016216
2026-03-08 13.863682 16.289479 19.409346 23.905230 30.603762 41.044841 60.996148
2026-03-15 13.454410 15.873753 19.010496 23.578940 30.487592 41.490727 63.280713
2026-03-22 13.345710 15.851227 19.142796 24.021629 31.586250 44.088015 70.473706
2026-03-29 13.148435 15.700367 19.088495 24.182464 32.245126 45.993874 76.696551
2026-04-05 13.001644 15.610312 19.111730 24.454902 33.099046 48.350183 84.669336
2026-04-12 12.784109 15.415155 18.977067 24.477287 33.534201 49.970310 91.351535
2026-04-19 12.476000 15.085704 18.638588 24.167767 33.380068 50.420251 95.031539
2026-04-26 12.174148 14.756402 18.289091 23.824412 33.143070 50.676453 98.257703
2026-05-03 11.858681 14.400190 17.889919 23.386162 32.712376 50.491956 100.128511
2026-05-10 11.659492 14.200747 17.711309 23.287784 32.875832 51.565692 106.387996
2026-05-17 11.588830 14.178495 17.788835 23.599016 33.794657 54.379021 119.919296
2026-05-24 11.361219 13.928699 17.523166 23.342716 33.652512 54.818263 125.025101